Newly elected Gov. Bob Ferguson, a noted chess master, should be on his game right now. But instead, he appears conflicted in what moves to make.
A look to history suggests danger and opportunity for our state’s dominant Democrats, amid the carnage that Trump is inflicting upon Washington’s economy. One in four jobs is trade dependent. The voters of Eastern and Central Washington resent big government but are also dependent on it: Grand Coulee Dam supplies water for irrigation and electricity. Fairchild Air Force Base is a big Spokane presence, as is the VA’s Jonathan Wainwright Medical Center in Walla Walla. The Hanford cleanup is vitally needed and a big job supplier.
Some years ago, the topic was: Does the Republican Party have a future in this Washington? In 1978, reacting to excesses of Gov. Dixy Lee Ray, the Republicans came roaring back, producing a 49-49 tie and co-speakers in our state House of Representatives (which would also occur in the 1998 midterms two decades later). Republicans would sweep to victory in 1980, electing Gov. John Spellman. But then overreach.
Gov. Mike Lowry’s talk of higher taxes, after winning in 1992, got the business community up in arms. Business groups raised a lot of money, spearheaded by ex-Weyerhaeuser CEO Norton Clapp, stepfather of ex-Gov. Booth Gardner. Business bucks coupled with anti-tax sentiment and sagging Democratic enthusiasm produced a national Republican landslide. We were an integral part of a “Republican Revolution” in which Republicans flipped six Washington congressional seats. Two years later, Lowry declined to seek reelection.
Washington voters are historically socially liberal and protective of privacy. The state is not welcome in our bedrooms, witness votes for reproductive rights and Death With Dignity and marriage equality laws. However, fiscally speaking, voters here have a history of both approving anti-tax initiatives as well as upholding revenue increases when voters understand what their taxes are paying for. They can go either way. Which leaves Ferguson in something of a quandary.
The Democratic base is demanding new high-earner taxes to close the state’s revenue shortfall and avoid devastating cuts to services. College students face more tuition increases, the state’s services for special needs kids are at risk, as is funding to combat homelessness and substance abuse.
On the other hand, high sales taxes and property taxes that aren’t based on ability to pay are making it more difficult to live a middle-class life in Washington. Voters have backed some of Tim Eyman’s initiatives because the state hasn’t addressed the inequity in our tax code.
The state is also experiencing growing pains. Washington is not turning out enough technology graduates to staff a technology-driven, Information-Age economy. Much of our infrastructure dates from when Baby Boomers were in high school. Whole new communities and neighborhoods have since flooded into our suburbs and exurbs.
Bob Ferguson became a lightning rod as Attorney General, thanks to a string of wins over the first Trump regime. He was a bulwark against its multiple excesses, defending immigrants’ rights and anti-discrimination statutes. The Stranger fawned over his work with a valentine-themed cover.
To date, however, Ferguson has prioritized fiscal restraint, with Republicans applauding. He has focused on trying to find savings, rather than promoting new revenue. That has surprised many observers. The progressive movement has been turning out in force on the Capitol steps to call for balancing the budget by balancing the tax code. They don’t necessarily want to soak the rich, but even the prospect of a rinse job has the business community once more raising money.
Republicans smell opportunity. Demonizing Seattle hasn’t worked. Anti-crime appeals haven’t worked. Demonizing transgender teens has gone nowhere. The GOP seems to be betting that opposing new taxes can get them some traction and renew their relevance in state politics. They tried such a maneuver last year with megadonor Brian Heywood’s slate of initiatives, only to be find voters emphatically siding with Democrats.
By massive margins, Washingtonians voted overwhelmingly to keep a capital gains tax paid by the wealthy, funding the Education Legacy Trust, keeping fees on pollution, funding transportation infrastructure as well as clean energy projects with the Climate Commitment Act, and keep payroll deductions in place to fund WA Cares.
Democrats in this session must produce a balanced budget, and they’ve signaled it’ll include a mix of cuts and revenue. Bob Ferguson is being tested a little over two months into his term. It’s already showtime, with critical early reviews. Fergie’s dilemma brings to mind a famous Yogi Berra axiom: “When you see a fork in the road, take it.”
This article also appears in Cascadia Advocate.
A moderate Democrat is a rarity.
I am seeing one and I like him and his policy of fiscal restraint.
Bob Ferguson always thinks a few moves ahead, so I take him as positioning himself as not a Seattle liberal, as Inslee did and AG Ferguson did, but as a statewide moderate. We’ll see if he sticks with this positioning, but it makes for an effective debut, at least in the Age of Trump.
Thank you Joel for describing well the GOP’s predicament in how it finds ways to gain traction against a deep Democrat majority and Governor. Yes, Ferguson is in a pickle too, though he has been the advantage of a bigger chess board of pieces to play. Sad for the GOP to have a MAGA style leadership. GOP leg leaders are unable to disavow Trump’s attacks on Wa State trade, K-12 and Universities. They need to elect moderates in swing districts or elect Ds in red districts who can address conservative issues for them as used by to happen across the state. Without a more balanced GOP they are unable to push back on Trump’s impact to their hometowns. And as you point out their attempt to repeal capital gains tax even failed in Red Counties.
Ferguson’s budget is similar to Gregoire’s and Locke’s budgets during economic downturns. Gov Gregoire’s budget included furloughs as did Inslee’s in June 2020. He was reelected easily.
The GOP may like furloughs since it inflicts pain on their traditional targets: defenseless bureaucrats. However much of the state budget provides essential services to their constituents. Community/ Technical colleges, rural health clinics, law and justice, ag trade support. Ferguson and D majority get to see what the GOP leaders are willing to cut in their hometowns.
Washingtonians hate taxes that advantage the wealthy, they also know what they get from state services, maybe their ready for a wealth tax?