Don’t know that anyone has referred to Las Vegas as Baja Seattle. I choose to be the first.
Its NFL team, the Raiders, which last won a playoff game in 2002, has Pete Carroll as head coach and Geno Smith as starting quarterback. Carroll’s sons, Brennan and Nate, are assistant coaches. All ex-Seahawks. It would be little surprise to see them joined in the off-season by receivers with Seattle ties. DK Metcalf has asked to be traded. Tyler Lockett, the team’s longest-tenured player, was cut, a salary cap casualty at 33 but likely still serviceable.
[Update: The Seahawks Saturday traded Metcalf to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a second-round pick in the 2025 NFL draft, 52nd overall. Earlier, the Steelers agreed to a new contract with Metcalf: four years for $132 million. The Seahawks now have five choices among the first 92 in the April draft.]
If indeed it is Carroll’s plan to get the Seattle band back together, my recommendation to him is to remember to give the ball to Marshawn Lynch at the 1-yard line.
In Seattle, the 2025 plan is less clear. The Seahawks have five new offensive assistant coaches, and may be missing their best two offensive players. As the NFL enters its annual free agent signing period starting Monday, the Seattle offensive line is a bamboo fence against a herd of rhinos — 31st of 32 teams in the final 2024 rankings by Pro Football Focus.
The good news is that the Seahawks, who finished 10-7 and missed the playoffs by one game, are now more than $60 million under the 2025 salary cap, meaning lots of money is available for new hires starting Wednesday. The more dubious news is the man who managed the enterprise into this abruptly dark corner, football boss John Schneider, is still in charge.
A lot of analytics and comparative data are being dispersed about where the Seahawks were competitively in 2024 and where they aim to get in 2025. Two observations stand above the rest.
In six seasons as a Seahawk, Metcalf has participated in one playoff win.
In six seasons as a Seahawk, Smith has participated in zero playoff wins.
Clearly, many other elements beyond their play contributed to the dismal team results. But it does help explain why the sides were willing to move on from one another. In the designed parity of the NFL, it is easier to get better faster than in other sports. The Seahawks have not gotten better. In this decade, the Seahawks are one of only four franchises, along with the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants and Chicago Bears, that have failed to make the NFC Championship game.
Regarding the NFL’s capacity for quick repair, one immediate example stands out. As football fans hailed the Philadelphia Eagles for their breathtaking wallop of the dynastic Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl, the confetti partly obscured the Eagles’ weird 2023 season.
After winning 10 of their first 11 games, the Eagles nosedived, finishing the regular season 11-6, which included a ghastly 20-17 loss in Seattle Dec. 18. Anyone watching that game likely would not have surmised that the Eagles would be champions in a year — particularly if they subsequently saw the Eagles lose 32-13 in the first round of the playoffs to mediocre Tampa Bay. The notoriously intolerant Philly fans were screaming for the coaching heads of Nick Sirianni and his staff.
Sirianni partly obliged, firing offensive coordinator Brian Johnson after a single season and replacing him with Kellen Moore. More importantly, Sirianni helped persuade the Eagles’ shrewd general manager, Howie Roseman, to go big on signing free agent RB Saquon Barkley. Roseman was wise enough to withstand public blowback on the Barkley hire as well as keeping Sirianni, who is now the third in NFL history to advance to multiple Super Bowls in his first four head coaching years (Joe Gibbs, Mike Tomlin).
The Eagles have been to three of the past eight Super Bowls, winning two, all under Roseman, who started with the Eagles in 2000 and advanced to GM in 2010. Among his hallmarks is emphasis on premium talent in both lines, so that running leads the offense and run stops lead the defense. The coaching staff hires tend to be of secondary importance. Sirianni recently replaced Moore, a native of Prosser who now is head coach in New Orleans, by promoting Kevin Patullo. He is the Eagles’ seventh offensive coordinator in 12 years. It’s rarely the coaching; it’s usually the talent.
As it pertains to Seattle, Ryan Grubb last season wasn’t ready for his first job in the NFL to be an OC for a head coach 11 years his junior, who also was a first-timer in his post. So coach Mike Macdonald fired him and hired Klint Kubiak, who’s on his seventh NFL staff in 12 years. The reason that can be notable is that the Seahawks are likely in pursuit of a veteran free agent QB who is cheaper, younger and better than Smith. Many NFL observers will say there aren’t any such persons this time around. But since Seattle has to have one, the first question any such candidate — let’s say, Sam Darnold, 28, coming off a good season with the Vikings — will ask is,”Say, I see Geno led the NFL with 15 interceptions and also was sacked 50 times, third-most. WTF?”
Since Kubiak worked with Darnold for a season when both were with the 49ers, Kubiak is in a position to say, “Dude, I didn’t lie to you then, and I’m not lying to you now. Schneider’s ass is on the line to get quality up front. He has no choice. And you’re going to have a guaranteed deal that’s better than you’ll get elsewhere. No choice there, either.”
True. All that needs to happen in these next two months is Schneider being the best at what he’s been the worst. If it doesn’t work out, I’m sure he can get a gig in Baja Seattle.
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Sam Darnold is not worth the price, in dollars and opportunity cost.
Darnold has not been, is not and will not be a reliable front line quarterback.
As Art says, Schneider has painted himself–and the rest of us along with him–into this corner.
Say, has he become infected with Marineritis??
Until his final two games, Darnold was a cult hero in Minnesota. A younger, skinnier Tim Walz. But those last two games merit most of your skepticism, Sam.
The difference between the front offices of the Mariners and the Seahawks is the footballers are trying.
I’m looking at Darnold as a stopgap at worst, placeholder at best.
If there are no good quarterbacks in this year’s draft, Darnold will be an acceptable hire for a season, especially if Schneider improves the offensive line; funny how a decent front five can make average quarterbacks and running backs look good. Then we’ll see about the 2026 QB draft or free agency class.
If there’s a good-but-raw quarterback in this draft, Darnold can be the starter while the kid learns the ropes. Mike Holmgren drafted Brock Huard in 1999 as the quarterback of the future, but kept Jon Kitna as the starter because he wanted Huard to familiarize himself with the pro game (and recover from the beating he took during his senior season, coincidentally).
If the Seahawks somehow draft an instant superstar QB, like Peyton Manning and the Colts in 1998, then Darnold simply becomes a proven insurance policy. In 2012 the Seahawks got Matt Flynn, a terrific quarterback who was stuck behind Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. And as fans got excited about Flynn, the Hawks drafted Russell Wilson, and the rest is history.
Had Wilson gone on IR in his rookie year, the veteran Flynn would definitely have held his own. Instead, he’s best remembered as one of the few guys to back up two Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks.
At $100 million, Darnold is not a bridge QB. Stepping back is not an option for Schneider.Darnold wi’ll be a slightly better Geno Smith, but the Seahawks at the moment lack the O-line and WRs that Darnold had in MIN.
I’ve been waiting to hear from you, Art. -Lots to ponder with the Seahawks.
Geno, Tyler, and DK with the Raiders…that’s something to think about.
I believe everyone is looking at the wrong Sam. Darnold seems to be the popular focus, but the Seahawks are probably looking at Howell to step up. He’s had a season starting and a season watching. Big arm. Good mobility. Inexpensive contract. He reminds me of a young Terry Bradshaw, and let’s not forget that it took Terry 4 years of failure before he got it figured out. Tony Romo too. Teams used to be a little more patient.
Whatever happens, it will be good theater.
Plausible, David. The Seahawks traded a third and a sixth to get Howell. And the past two Seahawks starting QBs that no fan at the outset believed was capable turned out fairly well.
Excellent insight, as usual. And you have me laughing, as usual. THANKS, Art!
We need more laughs these days, yes?
Maybe the Hawks should emulate the 49ers and trade down to get the last pick in the 7th round of the draft and take a quarterback. Worked out pretty well for San Francisco.
Have another glass of merlot Paul!
Using a chainsaw to get rid of experienced and skilled personnel in HOPES that saved $$ will allow org. to possibly find adequate-to-good replacements .. I am not sure I like this approach in any situation. Hope is NOT a strategy. I allow for the possibility that Mr. Schneider will combine skill and luck and have a tolerable 2025-2026 season, but only if Mr. McDonald is a superior coach with excellent assistants. I definitely am not sanguine. More accurate: I am resigned to a year of flailing, finger-pointing, and constant readjustment.
Wish I could argue you out of that perception, Joel.
“All that needs to happen… is for Schneider to be the best at what he’s been the worst.”
You spared me from writing (and you having to read) about 2/3rds of my post. The accolades from building the Super Bowl teams died out ten years ago. Some say Scot McCloughan – operating in the background – was the real genius behind the roster building and the team’s ascent.
What John Schneider does the next 2-3 years (if he’s around that long) will define his legacy. Not saying he HAS TO win another Super Bowl, but the team needs to once again look “ascendant”, as opposed to the currently reality of having tread water for the past 10 seasons. In my youth I once made a great catch during football practice. Knowing how difficult a play it was, and seeing the self-satisfied look on my face, the coach turned to me and said: “Do it again.”
JS needs to do it again.
Your recall of Scot McCloughan, a draft savant, is spot on, Puck. He was a difference-maker. The Seahawks right now have no one left from the 2024 free-agent-signee class, and no one from the 2021 draft class (only three signees, but what the hell). That’s how you get painted into a corner.
Hi Art. I miss you, but watch from afar.
Lynn Templeton
Lynden, WA