The late Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney was fond of an old saying, “There’s nothing like a hanging in the morning to focus the mind.” The Trump trade war has Canadians focusing on their country’s leadership. It appears the governing Liberal Party will accomplish the most complicated operation in a parliamentary democracy, the total head transplant. With the coming departure of PM Justin Trudeau, the Liberals have found a new star — two in fact.
The favorite is Mark Carney, 59, a Harvard- and Oxford-trained economist and former governor of both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England. He has championed a “growth agenda” and promised to scrap Trudeau’s unpopular carbon tax. Also in the running is Chrystia Freeland, a former finance minister whose resignation from cabinet was the tipping point in forcing Trudeau to go.
The new Liberal leader, to be chosen Sunday, will automatically become prime minister. He/she will lead the party into an expected spring election — and a decision on who can best deal with trade warrior Trump, who says he wants to make Canada into America’s “51st state.”
The Liberal leadership has produced a dizzying swing in public opinion. Under the unpopular Trudeau, the Liberals trailed the opposition Conservative Party in the polls by as much as 27 points. It’s now just about even with Carney as leader.
How come? By a nine-point margin, according to the latest Angus Reid survey, Canadians prefer Carney over Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre when it comes to the delicate task of dealing with the volatile, self-absorbed Trump. Freeland is more narrowly preferred as well.
Poilievre is a right wing populist strikingly similar to Trump. He is running with a promise to abolish the CBC and fire the head of the Bank of Canada. He embraced the “Freedom Convoy” of anti-vaxxers who occupied downtown Ottawa for three weeks and was funded with right-wing money from the US.
Polls show a majority of Canadians disapprove of Poilievre. His party is more popular than its leader. Canada is a country founded on a principle of “Peace, Order, and Good Government.”
The Liberal surge also comes from collapsing support from the leftist New Demcratic Party , whose two dozen MPs have propped up the Trudeau government. The Reid poll shows it losing half the support it had after the last national election in 2021.
It’s part of a trend. The social democratic movement has been a font of ideas, such as Canada’s universal Medicare. The Liberals implement these ideas, and the New Democrats get slaughtered in the next election.
All the while, Trudeau has soldiered on. He spent an hour on the phone Tuesday with Trump. At the urging of U.S. automakers, Trump is allowing a one-month reprieve for automobile components from the 25 percent tariff on Canadian goods entering the U.S. Trudeau reciprocated with a 25 percent tariff on American imports. Then, Thursday, as the stock market was tanking, Trump backed down and pressed pause on tariffs on most imports.
Despite the closeness of countries, presidents and prime ministers have at times had rocky relationships. A Nixon tape had Tricky Dick calling PM Pierre Elliot Trudeau (father of Justin) “an asshole.” To which the elder Trudeau replied: “I’ve been called worse things by better men.”
A famous incident occured when then-Prime Minister Lester Pearson, past winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, spoke in 1965 at Temple University. He was somewhat critical of Lyndon Johnson’s decision to bomb North Vietnam. At a meeting the next day, LBJ grabbed Pearson by the lapels and bellowed, “You pissed on my rug.”
Justin Trudeau is getting a graceful exit. His waning days as Prime Minister are devoted to countering Trump by urging the citizenry to buy Canadian products and vacationing at home. He is seeking to expand trade with Commonwealth countries. He spent time with King Charles III on a trip to Europe last week.
The Liberal Party moved left under Justin Trudeau and will move back to the center under Carney. An editorial years ago in The Globe and Mail spoke to the party’s role in Canadian life: “The Liberals are like the Tower of Pisa. It always appears to be falling but never does.”
This story also appears in The Cascadia Advocate.
