In 2024, higher education faced increased pressures — dwindling public confidence, operational challenges, and economic woes. Public officials at every level of government, emboldened by wins among voters without post-secondary degrees, are likely to increase external demands on colleges and universities in 2025. At the same time, demographic and technological changes offer more challenges and opportunities.
As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, many colleges fear threatened cuts to research funding, endowments, diversity efforts, student financial aid, and more. At the state level, public pressure has focused largely on policies and practices related to diversity, equity, and inclusion.
The Chronicle of Higher Education tracked state-by-state changes to DEI in 2024, finding that more than 200 institutions made changes — renaming, restructuring, or closing DEI departments, eliminating training programs, and changing policies about admissions, hiring, and promotions.
Thus far, no anti-DEI legislation has been proposed or passed in Washington. But in Idaho offices and centers focused on serving women, LGBTQ students, and students of color at public universities will likely be forced to close by June 30, 2025.
State laws in Washington have prohibited consideration of race in admissions for more than 25 years. Nevertheless, UW reports that one out of every five freshmen on the Seattle campus identifies with a racial demographic that is historically underrepresented on college campuses. A 10-year analysis of enrollment data, shows a slow but steady increase in the number of students who identify as Black.
In early December, the Western Association of Schools and Colleges’ Senior College and University Commission, an accrediting body, announced that it was considering removing the words “diversity, equity, and inclusion” from its standards, replacing them with “success for all students.” After seeking feedback from members and outside organizations, the WSCUC decided against removing DEI language. However, pressure is likely to continue from president-elect Donald Trump who has threatened to “fire” accreditors.
Trump has also threatened to eliminate the federal department of education and to deport international students who participate in campus protests. Vice President-Elect JD Vance has identified colleges and universities as “the enemy.”
Many of the public challenges to higher education come from the right. But two-thirds of Americans think higher education is going in the wrong direction, including nearly half of Democrats, according to a recent Gallup survey.
A recent survey found that four in five Americans think that the cost of college is the biggest factor that blocks any individual from enrolling in institutions of higher education. In 2024, the Biden administration attempted to address cost concerns through student debt relief. However, courts struck down most proposed programs.
In 2024, the bungled rollout of a new “simplified” financial aid form also created financial hurdles for college students and their families. The General Accounting Offices reports the 2025 financial aid application cycle continues to be bedeviled by delays.
Starting in 2026 Washington will allow families to bypass the federal financial aid application process by automatically guaranteeing free tuition at public colleges and universities to students from families that receive food benefits from the federal supplemental nutrition assistance program.
A relatively strong economy may entice some high school graduates to enter the workforce instead of attending college. A recent study by the Washington Roundtable predicts ongoing job growth in Washington State. However, 75 percent of those jobs are expected to require post-secondary credentials and the bachelor’s degree will be required for about 45 percent of those jobs.
For more than a decade, researchers have forecasted that 2025 will usher in a “demographic cliff” caused by a “birth dearth” that began with the 2008 recession. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education predicts that the number of high school graduates will decline steadily through 2041. Racial and ethnic representation of students will also shift. The number of students graduating from public high schools who identify as Hispanic or multiracial will continue to increase while the number of students of all other races and ethnicities will decline.
Some parts of the country will see steeper declines in college-age students than others. The West (-20 percent), Northeast (-17 percent), and Midwest (-16 percent) are expected to have sharp declines. Only the South (+3 percent) will see a net increase in high-school graduates.
In 2024, enrollments remained relatively strong as the number of students on campuses grew by 3 percent. But enrollments of first-year students were down by more than 5 percent, possibly signaling the beginning of a period of enrollment decline.
Enrollment declines can devastate institutions that have been based on a “growth mindset” for decades. Among the negative side effects are program cuts, college closures and inadequate workforce capacity.
In 2024, the rate of college closures was about one per week. Most were small, private, tuition-dependent institutions that lacked robust endowments. Officials most frequently cited financial pressures and declining enrollment as the reasons for closure. Some institutions addressed those challenges through mergers. In Seattle, Cornish College for the Arts and Seattle University announced a merger in early December.
Colleges and universities have also turned to other strategies for managing enrollment such as retaining more students. The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center recently reported that nationally, 61.1 percent of students who start college complete within six years – up .5 percentage points over the previous year. In Washington, 58.1 percent of students complete in six years – up .3 percentage points.
In 2024, generative artificial intelligence tools came into widespread use on college campuses. Concerns remain about academic integrity, but institutions are beginning to incorporate AI into core administrative activities – including doing a better job of recruiting new students and helping current students graduate.
AI and other technology tools may help colleges and universities adapt to the challenges they are facing, but obstacles remain such as bureaucracy, resistance to change, and limited resources. However, technology optimists such as UPCEA’s Andy Caisello believe that “Technology can bridge gaps in learning and streamline administrative processes, benefiting faculty, staff, and students alike. It can provide data insights into student performance, support diverse learning needs, and open new collaboration avenues.”
