Pull-Date for Trudeau? A Political Meltdown in Canada

The trickiest operation in a parliamentary democracy is the full head transplant, made even more difficult when the leader does not wish to leave office. Such is the situation with Canada’s beleaguered Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

“The prime minister is living in a false reality: He’s delusional if he thinks we can continue like this,” Wayne Long, a member of parliament from Trudeau’s governing Liberal Party, representing New Brunswick, said last week.

He was reacting to the sudden, unexpected resignation from Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. Instead of delivering a promised economic statement, she posted a letter faulting Trudeau for offering “costly political gimmicks” at a time when Canada faces the prospect of stiff Trump tariffs on its exports to “the states.”

The result has been infighting and chaos in a staid country that has long lived by the motto of “peace, order, and good government.” Often called Canada’s “natural governing party,” the Liberals are sinking in the polls. One political tout sheet forecasts they would lose 100 seats in the House of Commons were the election held today. The party has lost byelections in longtime Liberal bastions in Montreal and Toronto, lately tanking in another election in the British Columbia district of Cloverdale-Langley.

Trudeau has appeared dug in, saying that he will lead the Liberals four the forth time in an election expected in the spring or summer of 2025. “Trudeau has got to go,” said Jagmeet Singh, leader of the leftist New Democratic Party, whose votes in parliament have propped up the Liberals’ minority government.

Donald Trump, who loathes Trudeau, is enjoying the spectacle. The prime  minister made a recent ring-kissing trip to Mar a Lago but didn’t reap any respect. In a post on the Freeland resignation, Trump trumpeted: “The great state of Canada is stunned as the finance minister resigns, or was fired from her position by Justin Trudeau.”

 Trudeau and Freeland disagreed on how to respond to Trump’s promised tariffs. The PM offered her a lesser cabinet post, only to receive the shock resignation. He had recruited Freeland, a Rhodes Scholar, bestselling author and journalist, to run for parliament. She has held three cabinet portfolios and handled renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement for Canada during Trump’s first term.

The “gimmicks” include a $250 (Canadian) check promised to most Canadian families and a suspension of Canada’s unpopular Goods and Services tax. The opposition’s Conservative Party leader Pierre Polievre is going a step further, promising to roll back Trudeau’s major climate initiative. He has dubbed the upcoming vote “the carbon tax election.”

The House of Commons is in recess until January 27. The Conservatives promise a no-confidence vote when it reconvenes, but the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois will table a no-confidence vote when the Legislature reconvenes. Under parliamentary democracy, a loss by the government would trigger an immediate election. Singh is not showing his cards, telling CTV News: “Why would I box myself in?”

In some ways, to use a famous Yogi Berra maxim, it’s deja vu all over again. Justin Trudeau’s father, Pierre Elliot Trudeau, was prime minister from 1968 to 1984, with one brief break of Conservative administration. The elder Trudeau led the Liberals in five national campaigns. When he finally retired, the party virtually collapsed, winning just 40 seats in the 1992 election.

Despite his telltale announcements by cabinet ministers that they will not be running for parliament again, Justin Trudeau soldiers on. The PM has twice led his party to come-from-behind victories.  “He seems absolutely committed,” said said Sean Casey, a Liberal MP from Prince Edward Island, Canada’s smallest province, who wants Trudeau out.

Trudeau had a rough go of it at a Liberal caucus meeting held in the wake of Freeland’s shock resignation. He appeared serene, however, at a subsequent Christmas gathering, saying of his party: “Like most families, we have fights around the holidays. But of course, like most families, we find our way through it.”

An old axiom of politics has it that there’s nothing like a hanging in the morning to focus the mind. With this in mind, about a third of the Liberals’ caucus wants Trudeau out. There’s been a letter to that effect and a long lineup at the holiday party to get pictures taken with Freeland. About a third of the caucus is boosting Trudeau, and another third is quietly resigned to his continued leadership.

Canada is a center-left country which has pioneered such social programs as Medicare-for-all and it has welcomed immigrants. The Liberals’ strength has been in multiethnic urban areas, notably the cities of Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver, as well as their suburbs. But Polievre has has given the Conservatives both a populist and libertarian image and delighted in the Liberals’ infighting. “If you get clowns, you get a circus,” the prime minister-in-waiting said last week.

Why should we pay attention? Canada and the United States are each others’ largest trading partners, witness the recent announcement by Sen. Maria Cantwell of a major upgrade to the border crossings at Blaine. Of the promised tariffs, Singh said this week, “Trump is a real threat. People are worried about their jobs.”

Justin Trudeau adopted a strategy of flattery during Trump’s first term. He did voice mild criticism after one G-7 summit meeting. Already in the air, Trump delivered a nasty response from Air Force One. Out of office, he praised a trucker-led occupation of downtown Ottawa in protest against the Canadian government’s COVID-19 vaccine mandates.

Nor does Trump like Crystal Freeland. Citing the NAFTA renegotiation, he wrote dismissively this week: “Her behavior was totally toxic and not conducive to making deals which are good for the very unhappy citizens of Canada. She will not be missed.”

Not quite. Freeland is keeping her seat in parliament and says she will run again.