After more than half a century of tyrannical rule, Syria’s Assad dynasty has come to an end following a lightning 10-day offensive that sent dictator Bashar al-Assad fleeing for refuge in Russia.
The dramatic reignition of Syria’s stagnant 14-year-old civil war was aided by withering setbacks for Assad allies in Russia and Iran.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expended so much weaponry and manpower in his grinding war in Ukraine that the Kremlin can no longer afford to aid Assad’s fight with his own people. Russian aerial bombardments begun in 2015 drove Syria’s Islamic rebels into retreat in the northeast Idlib region, effectively leaving Assad’s forces to control the rest of Syria and terrorize fighters and civilians alike in the opposition enclaves.
Iran also will suffer the loss of Syria as a pliable ally through which Tehran could fund and arm proxy militias in Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East. In retaliation for attacks on Israel by Iran-backed Islamic militants, Israel has assassinated key leaders of Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia and political party and Hamas leaders in Israel’s Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also carried out strikes on Iranian military sites and production facilities thought to be involved in Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, punishing blows to the Iranian regime and its proxies throughout the Middle East.
The failure of Moscow and Tehran to come to Assad’s rescue suggests that both allies are distracted by their own political and military conflicts and cannot be relied on to help an imperiled ally. Russia has had to import at least 10,000 North Korean troops to try to rack up Ukrainian territory as pressure builds for Kyiv to capitulate to negotiations with Russia. Iran has been a major supplier of lethal drones to Russia and armaments to proxy militias throughout the Middle East that have been at war with Israel for the past 14 months.
Islamic militants led by a former Al Qaeda faction, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant—broke out from their northern strongholds in late November and swiftly rolled up the important cities of Aleppo, Hama and Homs before entering the capital Damascus early Sunday.
The rebel victory appears to end Syria’s bloody civil war—at least the fight against the Assad regime—after one of the deadliest and most destabilizing rebellions of the Arab Spring in 2011. Nearly 500,000 Syrians died in the fighting and strikes on civilian communities, including several attacks with chemical weapons outlawed by the U.N.-affiliated Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.
As the rebels closed in on Damascus, Assad reportedly resigned as president and flew with his family to Moscow, according to Russian state media reporting that the Assads were granted asylum.
HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani was joined by a coalition of Turkish-backed forces of the Syrian National Army during their rapid advance from the Idlib region to the Syrian capital. Jolani appealed for calm and a spirit of unity among Syria’s rival religious and ethnic factions. HTS is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, the United Nations and various human rights organizations.
The Associated Press reported that HTS has severed ties with Al Qaeda in recent years and that Jolani said his ideology has “evolved” since his years as a jihadist during the U.S. occupation of Iraq. He told a PBS interviewer in 2021 that he had been captured and detained by U.S. forces during the Iraq war, including at the infamous Abu Ghraib prison where U.S. guards were accused of torturing detainees.
“The US believes significant portions of Syria’s rebel coalition Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) maintain strong links to ISIS,” CNN reported Sunday, citing an unnamed senior US official referring to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
President Joe Biden made brief remarks after Assad’s fall hailing his ouster as “an act of justice that is allowing Syrians a historic opportunity.”
“At long last, the Assad regime has fallen. This regime brutalized and tortured and killed literally hundreds of thousands of innocent Syrians,” Biden told journalists at the White House. “It’s a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country. It’s also a moment of risk and uncertainty as we all turn to the question of what comes next. The United States will work with our partners and the stakeholders in Syria to help seize an opportunity to manage the risk.”
Israel’s Netanyahu took credit for weakening Iran with attacks in retaliation for Tehran’s support of Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi and other proxy militias. His government on Sunday entered a demilitarized buffer zone between Israel’s Golan Heights and Syrian territory, claiming the need to protect Israel from any spillover from the renewed unrest in the neighboring country.
Collapse of the Assad regime was a “historic day in the Middle East,” Netanyahu declared. “If we can establish neighborly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that’s our desire. But if we do not, we will do whatever it takes to defend the State of Israel and the border of Israel.”
President-elect Donald Trump opined on social media that the United States should stay out of the Syrian conflict.
Syrian state television immediately switched after Assad’s flight to Moscow from defending the regime to airing statements from the panel of victorious rebel leaders. “The city of Damascus has been liberated, the tyrant Bashar al-Assad has been toppled,” one rebel leader read over the air.
There was much talk among political pundits about both opportunity and risk.
If the United States and Turkey reach out to a new government in Damascus, regardless of its members’ past affiliations, “We have an opportunity to work with what will be a new government. If they are forced into a corner, they will turn back to Islamic forces like Al Qaeda. That doesn’t have to happen,” U.S. Rep. John Garamendi, D-CA, told CNN. He called for sending a very senior U.S. diplomat to Damascus to “begin a new communications process and work with surrounding countries to work with a plan.”
Bashar al-Assad ascended to the Syrian presidency in July 2000 after the death of his father, Hafez Assad, who led the country for the previous 30 years.
Iran and Russia both sent de facto signals on Sunday that they don’t intend to resume alliance with whatever Syrian government comes next. The Iranian Foreign Ministry put out a statement declaring that decision-making about Syria’s future is “solely the responsibility” of Syrians.
Russia’s granting of asylum to Assad and his family served as recognition that their failed ally was a spent force. The Kremlin has a history of giving refuge to ousted puppets like Afghanistan’s Communist-era leader when the Soviet occupation of his country ended and outed spies and intelligence compromisers like Edward Snowden of the National Security Agency.
I’m thrilled Assad is gone. However, I’m very nervous of any group that has had ISIS affiliation. I hope we’re prepared in case HTS starts causing trouble.