Donald Trump’s election as president is a sure sign of rough seas ahead for Washington’s trade-dependent economy.
Trump has doubled down on his threats of stiff tariffs on imported goods, especially from China. Those tariffs doubtless will push up the cost of imported televisions, clothing, and the myriad of goods the U.S. buys from China.
More directly, the likelihood of trade retaliation by China and other counties will result in lower exports, which will hurt both Washington agriculture and the ports through which the goods pass. Trade wars may also add to Boeing’s woes, if China imposes barriers to U.S. jets.
China is Washington’s largest foreign market. We sold $11 billion in airplanes, farm products, and other goods to China in 2023 – more than all the sales to all the other overseas markets combined, including Japan, Mexico, and South Korea.
For evidence of the threat, Trump’s tariffs in 2019 were a blow to the U.S. economy, especially agriculture. The U.S. paid farmers $28 billion to compensate for lost sales to China. Tariff rates then were never higher than 30 percent, far less than the 60 percent now threatened by Trump.
The Northwest Seaport Alliance, the joint venture that manages the Seattle and Tacoma ports, may see a short-term boost in cargo as shippers rush to move cargo before tariffs hit. A lot is at stake: China trade is responsible for nearly 40 percent of all exports and imports through the ports.
“Our biggest trading partner is China, and Asia in general,’’ said Seattle Port Commissioner Sam Cho. Raising trade barriers “is going to hurt our (container) volumes without a doubt.” Other U.S. West Coast and Canadian ports may also suffer lost volumes.
Cho also sees danger in the threatened roll-back of President Biden’s infrastructure funding legislation. The Seattle and Tacoma maritime ports are angling for money to reduce truck and ship emissions, and Seattle-Tacoma International Airport needs money to keep up with rising travel demand.
International trade depends on stable two-way relationships, which the Northwest ports have carefully nurtured over decades. Trump’s election “threatens to introduce chaos’’ and upset that balance, Cho said. Choppy seas, indeed!
