Attorney General Bob Ferguson enjoys a comfortable lead as he seeks to be Washington’s sixth consecutive Democratic governor, according to a new statewide poll conducted for the Northwest Progressive Institute. The survey, which interviewed 571 likely voters, found Ferguson with 48 percent, ex-U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert at 41 percent, with 10 percent undecided. The AG’s lead has grown slowly in these polls, from four percent in a February to six percent in May and July, to its present seven percent.
Three states are picking new governors this year. A fellow Democratic AG, Josh Stein in North Carolina, has moved to a double-digit lead over MAGA Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson. Robinson hasn’t helped his cause by describing himself as a “Black Nazi” writing on an adult website. Ex-U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican, is expected to win in New Hampshire.
“Ferguson is in very good shape for a candidate running for an open gubernatorial position in Washington,” said Andrew Villeneuve, executive director of the Redmond-based Northwest Progressive Institute.
Villeneuve is an active Democrat and NPI’s poll taker, Public Policy Polling, has Democratic roots. But PPP’s previous findings have been on the mark, notably its prediction of Sen. Patty Murray’s margin of victory two years ago. Its latest survey, with Ferguson up by seven points, shows a tighter race than the most recent Cascade/PBS-Elway survey, which found Ferguson with a 51-37 percent lead over Reichert.
Ferguson has been a high profile public official. He established civil rights and environmental divisions in the AG’s office, mounted successful legal challenges to the Trump Administration, and won big settlements in legal action against opioid manufacturers and distributors.
Ferguson has filled ballrooms with supporters, going into the fall campaign having raised nearly $8 million. He has aired positive TV spots, while the Democratic Governors Assn. has done the dirty work, spending $6.5 million, largely on ads excoriating Reichert for House votes to restrict abortion and to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
Ferguson’s message and anti-Reichert spots have filled the airwaves, while Reichert ads have just begun to appear. The Republican Governors Association has yet to show support for the GOP candidate. The result, Ferguson is viewed positively by 43 percent of those surveyed, negatively by 38 percent, while Reichert lags with an approval rating of just 36 percent. The former sheriff gets a negative rating from 41 percent of those surveyed.
The 2024 race contrasts with 2004 and 2012, the last times our state has chosen a new governor. The ’04 contest was decided by a margin of 133 votes, with multiple recounts and a court trial finally securing victory for Christine Gregoire over Dino Rossi. The 2012 election saw Jay Inslee prevail over Rob McKenna thanks to big margins in a small number of Seattle legislative districts.
The state used to show an independent streak in picking its top elected official. Democrat Al Rosellini was elected Governor in 1956 and 1960, as Republican presidential candidates Dwight Eisenhower and Richard Nixon were winning Washington’s electoral votes.  Dan Evans, a Republican, ousted Rosellini in 1964 as Lyndon Johnson carried the presidential vote in a landslide over Barry Goldwater. In turn, Democrat Booth Gardner defeated GOP Gov. John Spellman in 1984 in the year of Ronald Reagan’s l49-state victory.
The Gipper was the last Republican presidential candidate to carry Washington, and Spellman was our last GOP governor. The Republicans, at present, do not hold a single statewide elective office.
Republicans in the Northwest are suffering the blue state blues. Surveying the 2024 presidential race, Public Policy Polling found Vice President Kamala Harris with a 55-40 percent lead over ex-President Donald Trump in Washington, with just 4 percent undecided.
 Harris leads in Oregon by a 53-41 percent margin, with 3 percent undecided and 3 percent backing a third party candidate. The Beaver State has not had a Republican governor since 1986 and has a string of five consecutive Democrats in its highest office.Â
The PPP poll in Washington has a margin of error plus/minus four percent. The margin in Oregon, where 716 voters were surveyed, is 3.7 percent. The poll was taken Tuesday and Wednesday of this week..
