Early September marks the real opening of ballot initiative season. If you’re part of of a campaign, there’s typically an acrimonious conference call in which the campaign manager accuses all the consultants of wasting the funders’ money and f**king off all summer. The bottom line: voters have only just begun to pay attention, and there are just two months left to get to 50 percent plus one vote. This is also a time when fresh infusions of money flow in, signifying both hope and worry that measures will pass or fail. So here’s a look at some of the big checks flying around.
BP America cut the biggest check of August, sending another $1 million to Green Jobs PAC, which is opposing Initiative 2117 to repeal the Climate Commitment Act, which established a cap-and-trade system for major emitters of carbon pollution. We wrote about the multinational oil giant’s first $1 million for this campaign back in May. Green Jobs PAC is housing the substantial corporate effort against I-2117. The committee has raised more than $3 million so far. Most of its spending has been on public opinion research, which they’re keeping close to the vest.
BP’s support is notable both because the company is betting heavily on clean fuels initiatives and because thus far there is no appreciable oil money behind the repeal. BP and other oil companies spent $30 million defeating a similar carbon-pricing scheme in 2018.
No on 2117, the larger, philanthropy-driven PAC that is also fighting the repeal, has raised more than $11 million, including a fresh $500,000 infusion from the Nature Conservancy, which has now given $1 million total. Most of the rest of the money comes from environmentally inclined millionaires and billionaires, including Microsoft founder Bill Gates.
Initiative 2117 is one of three remaining measures put forward as a suite by Let’s Go Washington and Restore Washington as a conservative response to progressive laws adopted by the Legislature in recent years. (Three other measures were adopted by the Legislature earlier this year, in part to keep popular ideas off the ballot.) The other two are Initiative 2109, which would repeal the capital gains tax, and Initiative 2124, which would significantly weaken the state’s new long-term care insurance program by making the payroll tax that pays for it optional.
The Washington Federation of State Employees gave the campaign defending the capital gains tax $250,000 in August, while the Washington Education Association, the state’s powerful teachers union, chipped in another $234,000. The tax was tied to big spending increases on education and child care. That campaign has raised more than $2.5 million thus far.
The opposition campaign against I-2124 is mostly fueled by the Service Employees International Union, which represents long-term care workers. The SEIU plowed $500,000 into the campaign in August, bringing its total haul to more than $1.3 million.
The campaigns for the three initiatives are all housed within Let’s Go Washington, which has raised more than $5.3 million thus far for the 2024 cycle. However, that vastly overstates how much the committee has available to pay for a campaign to pass any one initiative. LGW has spent more than $4.4 million thus far, and much of the money flowing in and out has been for a separate ballot initiative to roll back various restrictions on the use of natural gas. Its biggest contribution for August was $400,000 from Lawrence Hughes of Medina, a serial tech entrepreneur. Barring late infusions of cash, Let’s Go Washington looks to be badly outgunned in the coming months.
Upthegrove’s lead survives recount in public lands race
Just as we surmised last month, the race for Public Lands Commissioner came down to a hand recount after Democratic King County Councilmember Dave Upthegrove edged Washington State GOP nominee Sue Kuehl Pederson by a mere 51 votes in the dog days of summer. The recount didn’t materially change the result, which is to be certified this week. So Upthegrove advances to the general this fall with former U.S. Republican Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler. In that scenario, the race for the White House likely gets Democrats fired up in Upthegrove’s stomping grounds, handing him a healthier lead in November. (Tim Gruver)
This article first appeared in the Washington Observer.
