Washington looks like a blue Democrat-leaning state this November with Republicans once more singing the blues, according to a new statewide poll taken this week for the Northwest Progressive Institute.
The survey gives Vice President Kamala Harris a 14-point lead over ex-President Donald Trump in the race for the White House. Harris was the choice of 52 percent of those surveyed, to 35 percent for Trump with 6 percent supporting independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. “Harris has inherited Joe Biden’s support,” said Andrew Villeneuve, executive director of NPI. Eighty-four percent of those surveyed approved of Biden’s decision not to seek reelection.
The contest for governor is closer, but Attorney General Bob Ferguson, a Democrat, has a modest lead over Republican frontrunner ex-U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert. In the four-way August 6 primary, Ferguson is ahead with 39 percent, a slight uptick from a May poll. Reichert is in second place at 28 percent, followed by former Richland School Board member Semi Bird at 10 percent and Democratic State Sen. Mark Mullet trailing at 5 percent. Bird was endorsed last month at a tumultuous Republican state convention.
In a direct matchup, Ferguson enjoys a 49 to 43 percent lead over Reichert, a figure virtually unchanged from his 48-42 percent advantage in the May poll. “Bob Ferguson may not win in a blowout, but our research has consistently shown he has the edge,” said Villeneuve, a backer of the AG. The edge extends to name recognition. Ferguson has won three statewide elections. Reichert, a former King County Sheriff, was elected seven times in Washington’s 8th Congressional District.
The survey interviewed 581 likely primary election voters, 32 percent from land lines and the other 68 percent responding online after being recruited by text. The poll was taken July 24 and 25 by Public Policy Polling, a firm with Democratic roots but a record of accuracy. Another recent survey, the Crosscut Elway poll, has likewise put Ferguson in the lead.Â
The PPP findings underscore two major characteristics of politics in Washington state.
In a distinction coined by ex-Secretary of State Ralph Munro, we have “Space Needle Washington” and an “Old Snowy Washington.” Scale the Needle and you look out at population centers that vote Democratic. From Old Snowy, the view is of Eastern Washington and Southwest Washington turf that belongs to Republicans.
The latest PPP poll shows Harris with 73 percent of the vote in King County. Four years ago, President Biden won the state’s most populous county by a three-to-one margin, which translated to a half-million-vote majority.Â
“Basically, Harris has inherited Biden’s support,” said Villeneuve. Trump carries Eastern Washington, as does Reichert by a larger margin. Reichert has hinted at a statehouse run for years before deciding to take the plunge this year. He retired from Congress in 2018.
As well, the state has a yawning gender gap. in a two-way gubernatorial race, Ferguson has a 57-37 percent advantage among women voters, while Reichert is ahead by 51-41 percent among men. Eight percent said they were undecided.
The governor’s office has been held by five successive Democrats over a period of 40 years, the longest one-party winning streak in the nation. Both the 2004 and 2012 races, with no incumbent running, were close. Gov. Christine Gregoire won in 2004 by just 133 votes, in an election ultimately resolved in a court trial.
Ronald Reagan was the last Republican presidential to win in this Washington. A Trump aide with Washington roots, Jason Miller, has suggested that the Evergreen State was in play. He made the prediction after Biden’s disastrous debate showing a month ago and before Biden quit the race.
The top two vote getters for governor in next month’s gubernatorial primary will go on the November ballot. A contest between Democrat Ferguson and Republican Reichert appears almost certain.Â
I am surprised that the aggregate lead of both Democrats is not larger than that of both Republicans. Could it be that Trump/Vance is less favored by some Right-leaning Independents than are the Republican choices?
Taking the risk of sounding like my fellow octogenarian, James Carville, this early poll is probably of “likely” voters – folk us political antiques call “threes-of-fours” – people who almost always vote unless in rehab, Critical Care, or jail. Polls taken right now likely exclude hard-to-track, energized, new or occasional voters. But right now, faithful Democrats can be of some hope. There are new, unpolled, like-minded prospects out there.
The 1992 Clinton election produced a phalanx of those newly registered voters, many of whom turned into campaign workers and outreach folks (“doorbellers”) etc. Such hard-to-track newcomers in Washington, where no one registers by political party, were lured in ’92 by that “top-of-the-ticket” candidate, produced a startling “trickle-down” impact on Washington’s election results. It was amazing for those of us running that WA State Democratic field campaign to see. Where could we put all those new volunteers to work? Wow! We could and did get many more voter registrars at tables set up at county fairs, festivals and other public events.
Those fired-up newcomers even made Mike Lowry governor and elected first time U.S. Congressman Jay Inslee in an Eastern Washington District! That “grass roots” optimism didn’t last, of course. Inslee soon lost and readjusted his Party’s thinking to the reality that in “normal” times, a Democrat of his ilk could only succeed in suburban Western Washington. Which happened.
After 1992, when we campaign managers returned to our non-political civilian lives, we watched the Washington Democratic Party’s electorate evaporate like the gaseous content of a deflated balloon. Once-excited new voters lost faith, lost touch and moved on. A cautionary tale.
One-party rule, one-party government is antithetical to democracy.
Sir
Unfortunately, especially for your side, there is but one (1) party in existence today. And yes, most of us agree that 2 is better but both have to be sane.
Your charge is to return the R party to sanity. Just calling it a party is meaningless as long as Kookdom rules, speaking Kookese.