If Joe Biden withdraws himself as a candidate for the Democratic Party’s nomination for President, the next two months could provide a spectacular boost for the Democrats’ chances of holding the White House.
For two months, the national news media, the blogosphere, and social media will be rolling in the nippiest political catnip ever—a short, intense, wide-open race for the nomination, which will probably actually be settled at the convention. This is reality TV Donald Trump can only dream of. It will push him out of the spotlight for days and weeks at a time, except as the guy various Democratic hopefuls are polling well against, or when his various criminal prosecutions make news.
The Democrats should embrace this opportunity to produce a splendid, news-dominating American pageant. For once, horse race coverage will actually be more important than issues coverage. With the nominee unknown, Putin and Trump will have a hard time targeting or strategizing.
Biden’s implosion on the debate stage will suddenly work against Trump if the new Democratic nominee is obviously younger and vigorous—now Trump’s the guy whose age is an issue. He’d become the oldest president ever elected, even older than Biden was in 2020, and we’ve all now seen just how fast an 80-ish president can fade.
In a weird way, this would be a very democratic process; the people’s elected representatives—the convention delegates—will choose the nominee, just as it should be in a representative democracy. Those delegates are virtually all pledged to Joe Biden, meaning they are generally center-left rather than lefty-left, which will strongly favor candidates who match that profile.
The Democrats’ best chance against Trump is to choose a nominee from nearer the center than the left edge of its party, so this is a good thing if beating Trump is the Prime Directive. By creating a unified pool of center-left delegates for the convention and then stepping aside, Joe Biden can offer America his last, best gift. He can retire as the man who saved America from Trump, twice, and was a successful president in between.
A strong argument and marvelous vision. One can only hope.
But who?
The devil is in the detail.
Is there even one plausible national figure?
If voters are so dumb as to think it’s a choice between Biden and Trump, why would you think they would have a measured view of a new candidate.
Biden will be slow in deciding to step back. It will take a candidate to bump Biden to get the machinery of replacement in motion. The top Democrats are precluded, being Biden surrogates and establishment pols. Time for an insurgency, with some fresh ideas? Josh Shapiro?
I agree. Not only will Biden be slow, because his pride and stubbornness will preclude that, I think his supporters will not push. I am not optimistic about establishment Democrats, either, because of their fealty to Biden and the ‘way things work.’
In 1959, JFK famously noted “When written in Chinese, the word ‘crisis’ is composed of two characters: one represents danger, and the other, opportunity.”
Even though that turned out to be apocryphal, it’s apt.
The huge problem for the Dems right now — among many others — is that this crisis comes precisely at the moment that call into question whether far-left Progressives and centrist liberal Democrats actually inhabit the same party. The Progressive left has several values which are fundamentally illiberal: collectivism vs. individualism, censorship vs. freedom of speech, colorblindness vs. equity, and more.
Chicago just got even more interesting. Going long on Chicago-area plywood, spraypaint and plate glass.
“…. this crisis comes precisely at the moment that call into question whether far-left Progressives and centrist liberal Democrats actually inhabit the same party. “
Exactly so.
You get a new candidate at this point and the Democratic Party implodes in argument of gender identity and Gaza.
People like Jayapal will make Trump look reasonable.
I consider myself a progressive. I disagree with your characterization of progressives. I do my best to not take foolish actions, including political viewpoints. Disagreement is one thing; name-calling is another. This election is far too important to engage in the latter.
What Carolyn Wallace said. Who’s a regressive? Painting the Democratic party as equally outside the realm of normal policy because, for example, some pro-Hamas demonstrators must be Democrats, is a right wing gimmick. No one who’d be considered as a potential sub for Biden will come out the crazy bin.
There’s a significant number of pro-Hamas and pro “gender identity”Democrats (like late unlamented Jamal Bowman and AOC). Inevitably, they will try to get to the trough and influence Democratic policy — if there is an open convention. No they are not a majority, but they will influence the choice of candidates and the platform. They will make those two issues essential & destroy the Dem Party.
For example, suppose Biden, as some kind of compromise, wanted Newsom as his VP. In fact, I think that would reassure a lot of voters.
But just ask among your progressive friends and see if they would accept a WASP het male. I’m guessing they would freak out and at least threaten to bolt. Maybe I’m wrong and I would be happy to be wrong but I’ve heard their rhetoric for the last 10 years, or more actually.
(And why do you bring up the Republicans? They’re not part of the convention process.)